30th International Congress of Actuaries: Browse by Day

MONDAY March 31






    1:00 p.m.-4:00 p.m.

    201: Limited Attendance Session 1-- How International are You? Ethics and Professionalism from an International Perspective (P)

  • With the increasing globalization of business, more actuaries find themselves operating internationally, while still other may be without realizing it. This three-hour limited attendance session will consider implications of the IAA’s Principles of Professionalism for actuaries practicing in these situations. This discussion will consider the Principles of Professionalism and application of International Standards of Actuarial Practice (ISAPs); the governance of international actuarial work; various codes of conduct around the actuarial world; the profession's response to business ethics; the need for continuing professional education and development; professional discipline; and the matter of the public interest. Attendees will participate in case studies and join in the discussion.
    Moderator: Geoff Rashbrooke
  • 201-A: Ethics and Professionalism from an International Perspective (Limited Attendance Session)
    Michael E. Angelina, Peter Doyle, David Martin






    8:00 a.m.-8:30 a.m.

    151: Poster Papers - Wednesday, Thursday (L) (H) (N) (B) (E)

    8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    90: Practical Introduction to Predictive Models (with software) Panel (N) (E)

  • Applications of predictive modeling have seen rapid growth in insurance. The session will feature practical applications with open source free software and public databases.
    Moderator: Edward Frees
  • 90-A: Predictive Modeling for Actuaries Book Project
    Curtis Gary Dean, Richard A. Derrig, Edward Frees, Glenn G. Meyers, Louise Francis
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    91: Regulatory Issues: What Are the Latest Developments for Non-Life Companies in Emerging Economies? (N) (E)

  • Solvency 2 requirements are a reality in many countries. These papers discuss the issues faced by insurers in emerging economies who face a shortage of data and numerous other model validation issues. The first paper addresses the challenges in Armenia in estimating the "technical provisions" regarding best estimate valuation and risk margin. The second paper discusses models to evaluate underwriting risk, reinsurance credit risk, market risk, and operational risk for reinsurers in developing countries.
    Moderator: Peter Boller
  • 91-A: Internal Model for Estimating Risks of Non-Life Insurance Companies for Developing Countries
    Khadija Gasimova
  • 91-B: The possibility of Best Estimate Valuation and Risk Margin Calculation of Technical Provisions as Set Out in Solvency II Framework Directive by General Insurance Companies in Armenia and the Need for Additional Actuarial Guidance
    Astghik Ananyan, Margarita Kirakosyan, Irina Sahakyan
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    92: Solvency and Risk Based Capital: What Does the Research Show? (N) (E)

  • Meeting the requirements of Solvency II will be a challenge to insurers worldwide. In the U.S., the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment, which is part of Solvency II, will be a new regulatory tool. The first paper explores alternative methodologies in order to describe claim-size and aggregate claim amount distributions in non-life insurance. The second paper explores a range of methods to calculate the Solvency Capital Requirement proposed in Solvency II's Quantitative Impact Study 5. The third paper reports on work done by the Casualty Actuarial Society's Risk Based Capital Working Parties.
    Moderator: Yuji Morimoto
  • 92-A: Modelling Premium Risk for Solvency II: From Empirical Data to Risk Capital Evaluation
    Gian Paolo Clemente
  • 92-B: Undertaking Specific Parameters or Partial Internal Model under Solvency 2?
    Rocco Roberto Cerchiara, Vittorio Magatti
  • 92-C: Calibration of Non-Life Underwriting Risk Charges and Dependency Structure from U.S. “Annual Statement” Data with Applications to Risk-Based Capital (Standard Formulas), ORSA and ERM
    Allan Kaufman
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    93: Risk Classification Systems (L) (H) (N) (B) (E)

  • The first presentation in this session sets out a classification system developed by the Risk Classification Working Party of the UK Actuarial Profession that can be used as a common reference point for discussing risk. The presentation covers demarcation and other issues encountered as part of this work. It is hoped that common terminology would reduce the possibility of confusion in discussing risks. The purpose of the second paper, developed by the Risk Classification Monograph Work Group of the American Academy of Actuaries, is to provide background and information to the public regarding the purpose of risk classification and the design and management of risk classification systems and to provide a systematic development of these concepts for actuaries and other professionals in a form applicable to all areas of actuarial practice.
    Moderator: Rob Walling
  • 93-B: On Risk Classification
    Arnold A. Dicke, Sam Gutterman, Burton Jay, Mark Litow
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    94: Risk Management in Practice - Part 1 (L) (H) (N) (B) (E)

  • Risk management programs in practice are explored in this session. Multiple presentations will discuss the benefits, challenges and risks associated with embedding the Principles of Sustainable Insurance (PSI) into an ERM framework, and provide practical guidelines to incorporate sustainability into the ERM process; will present the experiences of insurers and reinsurers in the implementation of an ERM program; and will discuss the role and impact of catastrophe models.
    Moderator: Alice Underwood
  • 94-A: Catastrophe Issues
    Kevin Madigan
  • 94-B: Sustainable ERM through Principles of Sustainable Insurance
    Fan Yang
  • 94-C: Swiss Re's Enterprise Risk Management
    Peter Sohre
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    95: Ethics and Professionalism for the Consulting Actuary (P) (C)

  • Across the world, recent financial scandals and crises highlight the need for more ethics and accountability in today's business environment. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a new term important in the world today. The presenters will focus first on the responsibility of the corporation and then the role of the consulting actuary in creating an ethical atmosphere in a competitive world. This is expected to be a highly interactive session as the presenters discuss the paper on CSR and the profession’s challenges in the balance between responsibilities between the corporate world, the public and the profession to make concepts like CRS a reality. This session is presented on Tuesday and on Thursday at 8:30.
    Moderator: Kenneth Hohman
  • 95-A: Managing Stakeholders In a Global Environment: Solutions to Organizational, Economic and Societal Issues Faced by Financial Institutions
    Luc Noubissi
  • 95-B: Ethics Related to the Individual Actuary
    Kenneth Kent
  • 95-C: Legal Considerations of Ethics and Professionalism in the US
    Sheila Kalkunte
  • 95-D: The Role of the IAA in Assuring Ethical Behavior of Actuaries Globally
    Kenneth Hohman
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    96: Cost, Access, and Quality - The US Health System and the Affordable Care Act (H)

  • This session will discuss the Affordable Care Act and the state of health coverage in the US, and with Cost Containment. The presentation will also consider in detail the recent efforts in Massachusetts to address cost growth. Massachusetts is home to the most expensive health care in the country and perhaps in the world. The presentation will review recent legislation and initiatives both by government and the industry to ‘bend the cost curve.’
    Moderator: April Choi
  • 96-A: The Affordable Care Act—A Summary of Its Effect on the System for the Finance and Delivery of Health Care in the US: The State of the States Before and Shortly After
    Daniel W. Bailey, Áron Boros
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    97: Predictive Modeling: Too Much of a Good Thing? (L) (H) (N) (P)

  • A debate. Modern insurance is really just a formalized community risk sharing with an insurance company administering the process. This process depends on a collective view of risk. Hundreds of policyholders sign contracts that state that their collective cohort will make any policyholder, who has an unfortunate event, whole. It is this use of the collective that makes insurance work. And it is a miraculous financial instrument. But, modern reality is significantly different than the insurance nirvana outlined above. Today there is a strongly increased focus on individual equity that erodes the principles of collective risk sharing. Or, does the application of predictive modeling increase the power of the collective? Our two speakers will wrestle with these issues in a debate format.
    Moderator: Steven Lehmann
  • 97-A: The Power of the Collective; The Death of the Collective
    Robert Brown, Roosevelt Mosley
  • 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

    98: The Expanding Role of the Actuary in Catastrophe Loss Estimation and Management (N) (C)

  • Traditionally, insurance companies licensed catastrophe models from three vendors, each with its own front and back end sytems to handle the model input and output. Newer technology is now offering many more options. What does all of this mean for underwriters, management, and actuaries? This session will illustrate new and expanded information available to actuaries for estimating catastrophe loss potential, understanding model uncertainty, and developing their own view of risk.
    Moderator: Karen Clark
  • 98-A: Expanding Role of the Actuary in Catastrophe Loss Estimating and Management
    Roger Grenier, Peter Taylor, Karen Clark
  • 10:00 a.m.-10:30 a.m.

    151: Poster Papers - Wednesday, Thursday (L) (H) (N) (B) (E)

    10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    100: ERM and Value Maximization (N) (E)

  • Regulators, rating agencies and others are demanding robust ERM strategies from insurers. This session will present several applications of ERM including capital modeling, price optimization and performance measures.
    Moderator: Michiel van der Wardt
  • 100-A: A better Approach to Measuring the Performance of a Portfolio of Customers in a Property Casualty Product
    Frank Sommerfeld
  • 100-C: Sustainable Value: When And How To Grow?
    Rami Bou Nader, Emmanuel Pierron
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    101: Predictive Modelling Methods/Reserving Individual claims (N)

  • This session will feature claims oriented practical applications of models. One paper will explain a model that can be used to estimate ultimate values for individual claims. The other paper will show how "unsupervised learning" data mining approaches can be used to model "suspicious" claims for further investigation by specialists.
    Moderator: Louise Francis
  • 101-A: A Primer in Multilevel Modeling for Actuarial Applications
    Mona S. A. Hammad
  • 101-B: Unsupervised Learning Methods Applied to Property-Casualty Databases
    Louise Francis
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    102: Advice & Assistance Committee/Education Committee of IAA (P)

  • Attendees will learn about what the IAA does through its Advice and Assistance Committee to assist in the establishment and development of actuarial associations in different countries, and how the IAA, through its Education Committee, provides education guidelines and a syllabus to them.
    Moderator: Mary Frances Miller
  • 102-A: Advice & Assistance Committee / Education Committee of IAA Panel
    Migeoung Kim, Tarmo Koll, Mary Frances Miller, Klaus Mattar
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    103: Microinsurance Panel Discussion - Sponsored by the IAA Microinsurance Working Group (H)

  • Microinsurance is growing and fairly rapidly moving from NGO-driven projects to commercialization. In this context, the role of actuaries is becoming very important, and widely recognized, as a necessary means to assure adequate pricing, effective monitoring, and sound solvency standards. This session is intended to offer attendees at ICA2014 an overview of these trends and how actuaries are becoming involved in them.
    Moderator: Peter Wrede
  • 103-A: Actuarial Issues in Microinsurance
    William J. Collins, Roseanne da Silva
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    104: Healthcare Cost Differentials and Cost Drivers (H)

  • By investigating how healthcare costs differ by region in South Africa, drivers of medical inflation are identified. Further, a study on health costs in the last year of life also sheds light on cost drivers.
    Moderator: Emile Stipp
  • 104-A: An Actuarial Perspective on Healthcare Costs in the Last Year of Life
    Linda Kemp, Shivani Ramjee
  • 104-B: Regional Variation of Healthcare Expenditure in the South African Insured Population
    Shirley Collie, Linda Kemp
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    105: CRO Roundtable - P/C (H) (N) (E)

  • The position of Chief Risk Officer is gaining in prominence and visibility. Most major insurers now have a CRO, who is a member of the senior management team The panelists will discuss the following topics: • What are the key roles and responsibilities of the CRO and of the risk management function within your organization? How do companies perceive the value of ERM? Value of the CRO? What are the main risks – internal and external -- you see to (life/PC) insurers in 2014? Longer term? • How have companies responded? • Can you relate a successful risk mitigation anecdote? • What do you see as the role – and the value -- of actuaries and actuarial models in risk management? Two panel discussions will allow audience interaction with Chief Risk Officers of various organizations. The first panel (Monday) will cover organizations where life, pension, and/or annuity risks are paramount. A second panel (Thursday) will include organizations where property/casualty hazards are the greater threats to solvency or corporate goals.
    Moderator: Gary Josephson
  • 105-A: Chief Risk Officer Panel - Property/Casualty and Health
    Barry Franklin, Michael Steel, Mark Verheyen
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    106: An Introduction to Takaful (N) (C)

  • Takaful is an alternative to insurance. The fact that takaful is developed in accordance to Islamic business principles and practices does not impede the effectiveness of takaful in meeting the risk management needs of its consumers as well as meeting the profit requirements of shareholders, but rather enhances it with values build around a socially responsible overlay. Come learn about takaful, and about the role of actuaries in takaful.
    Moderator: Michael Bayard Smith
  • 106-A: Communicating Takaful
    Nicholas Chee Lek Yeo
  • 106-B: Classification of Takaful Contracts
    Ocke Kurniandi
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    107: Autonomous Vehicles: Advances in Automobile Technology and Implications for the Insurance Industry (N) (C)

  • There has been a considerable amount of interest in the popular press on advances in driver assistance programs. Some are talking of “driver-less” cars in the near future. What do we know about the real world performance of such systems today, and what is a realistic time frame for their introduction into the marketplace? As cars become more and more automated, lawmakers and regulators will face new challenges in governing the testing and driving of these cars. Insurers will face new challenges in collecting data, setting rates, and determining liability. Panelists Kim Hazelbaker and Mike Stienstra will discuss the latest advances in crash-avoidance technology and the issues insurers need to address to be prepared for the emerging automated vehicle market.
    Moderator: Margaret Tiller Sherwood
  • 107-A: Autonomous Vehicles: Advances in Automobile Technology and Implications for the Insurance Industry
    Kim Hazelbaker, Michael Stienstra
  • 10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.

    108: China's Risk Oriented Solvency System for P&C Companies (H) (N) (E) (P)

  • In March 2012, China Insurance Regulatory Commission (“CIRC”) launched a three-year project to research and develop a more robust China risk oriented solvency system (“C-ROSS”). CIRC organized 13 task forces to research the solvency framework, capital modeling, and various risk types for both life and P&C insurance exposure. The speakers for today’s panel include officers from the CIRC, and leaders of various C-ROSS task forces, including the “P&C Underwriting Risk Project” and the “Other Risks and Risk Correlation Project”. Presentation 1: Introduction of C-ROSS 1. The main characteristics and shortcomings of the current solvency system in China 2. The objectives of C-ROSS 3. The structure of C-ROSS and its main characteristics 4. The difficulties in building C-ROSS and the timetable for finishing C-ROSS 5. C-ROSS and the international common standard in solvency system Presentation 2: As an emerging market country, China's insurance industry reflects the classic characteristics of rapid development and big change. The current measurements of underwriting risk of a property and casualty insurance company in China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) are creatively designed to meet Chinese realistic conditions. Several stochastic models are tested and evaluated in Quantitative Impact Study (QIS), including a new stochastic chain ladder model to better capture the inherent risk. A set of weighted coefficients of variance is reached by taking into consideration the applicability of each used stochastic model. Then a new hierarchical reduction method is introduced to decide the magnitude of risk factors (reserve and premium) for each risk unit. As a core measurement, it provides effective solution to scale impact and systemic risk. C-ROSS tends to not only the insurance company’s overall capital requirement but also the amount needed for various risk type and business of line. Finally, C-ROSS recognizes that volatility alone cannot portray the risk profile accurately. As a result, some regulatory indicators are put into the calculation to punish behavior such as artificially lowering reserve and premium rate level. Presentation 3: Natural Catastrophe is the most volatile P&C risk that C-Ross tries to quantify. This presentation illustrates a new approach, Event-linked Dependency, to create the new correlation among regions in the C-Ross Nat Cat framework. Solvency II inherits its framework from Basel II of EU Banking Industry. One big difference between banking and insurance, from the actuarial point of view, is that the risk distribution of the banking industry is relatively asymmetric, while the distribution of the insurance industry is generally right-skewed, especially for the catastrophe risks. For cat risks, this kind of feature defies good solutions under a correlation matrix framework. The correlation matrix approach creates inconsistencies between theoretical results and cat model results. To solve the issue, a new approach, which is to minimize the weighted-MSE instead of relying on a presumed distributions, is discussed. This new correlation framework is planned for use in the China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) for calibrating cat risks. We hope colleagues from the actuarial field worldwide can provide feedbacks to this new approach before China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) is formally rolling out in 2015. Presentation 4: As one of the largest insurance groups in China, Pingan plays an important role in China financial market, and has been developing its enterprise risk management system. The global financial crisis underscored the need for public authorities to act promptly and proactively to identify financial firms that are systemically important and to take measures to lessen the impact and reduce the risk. In 2013 Pingan was selected to be one of the GSIIs (Global Systematically Important Insurers), this opportunity has brought a series of challenges and higher requirements on risk management and capital management. We would like to share our thoughts on this issue and hope colleagues from the actuarial field worldwide can provide suggestions on the topic of systematic risk management
    Moderator: Ronald Kozlowski
  • 108-A: China's Risk Oriented Solvency System
    Peng Ding, Xiang Shi, Sen Chen, Zhengyong Zhang


    12:45 p.m.-4:00 p.m.

    204: Limited Attendance Session 4 - Tour U.S. Federal Insurance Office at Department of the Treasury (L) (H) (N) (B) (E)

  • This three-hour limited-attendance session with staff of the U.S. Federal Insurance Office will explore current activities of the FIO, of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) and other insurance supervisory issues of importance. The dialogue will be with staff of the U.S. Federal Insurance Office, including Tom Finnell, Deputy Director, Regulatory Policy, and John Nolan, Deputy Director, Financial Stability. This session is a limited attendance session, and also requires advance security clearance for participants due to our meeting location at the US Treasury Department. Advance registration, a specific (and non-transferrable) ticket for participation, as well as advance security information, is an absolute requirement for all participants. All participants must travel to the session by bus, which will leave promptly as scheduled. There can be absolutely no exceptions.
  • 204-A: U.S. Federal Insurance Office's Role in Global Insurance Supervision and Regulation (Limited Attendance Session)
  • 1:00 p.m.-4:00 p.m.

    203: Limited Attendance Session 3 - Bayesian Analysis Applications in Actuarial Science Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods (N)

  • This three-hour limited-attendance session is an introduction to Bayesian Analysis applications in Actuarial Science. It is targeted to practicing actuaries who may want to apply Bayesian Analysis in their work.. There will be examples of actuarial applications. Attendees will learn to use a popular software package, JAGS, to compute the posterior distribution. Participants are expected to bring laptops with RStudio, JAGS and R (with the packages “actuar”,”runjags”, “ChainLadder” and “coda") installed. Attendees will be assigned an actuarial application to analyze using material from the session. Box lunch included. This session is a limited attendance session. It requires advance registration, and tickets will be required at the door. Late registrants should contact Glenn Meyers (ggmeyers@metrocast,net) to receive scripts for the examples discussed in the workshop.
    Moderator: Curtis Gary Dean
  • 203-A: Bayesian Analysis Applications in Actuarial Science Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods (Limited Attendance Session)
    Curtis Gary Dean, Glenn Meyers

FRIDAY April 4


    8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    110: New Uses of Data and a New Approach to Extended Warranties (N)

  • This session first looks at global trends in property insurance , while the second panel considers the issue of mileage limitations on vehicle extended warranties.
    Moderator: Hervé Odjo
  • 110-A: Commercial Property Insurance Data and Analytics --- Innovation and Globalization
    George Davis, Joseph M. Palmer
  • 110-B: Earning Patterns of Vehicle Extended Warranties with Limited Odometer Cover: A Pure Risk Premium Approach
    Fidelis T. Musakwa
  • 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    111: Two Views of the Financial Implications of Resource Limits (N) (E)

  • We know that resource limits are of many types, including water, oil, and arable land. The financial implications of resource limits are not well understood, however. We present two views of these financial implications. Are the financial implications close at hand, affecting the financial system in both in the 2008-2009 recession, and in likely future recessions? Or can they only be expected to affect the financial system much later? Or are both near-term limits and distant limits issues that actuaries and insurers should be concerned about? Oliver Bettis will present results from a research project on limits to growth, commissioned by the IFoA and carried out by the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, led by Dr Aled Jones. This research focuses on the long term implications of resource limits to economic growth. A simple actuarial model will be presented which explores likely issues through scenario planning methodologies. Gail Tverberg will present research results showing that the financial system is already being affected by resource limits. Countries such as Greece and Spain are already feeling the effect of resource limits (high oil prices impacting their tourist revenue), providing a model of what may be ahead.
    Moderator: W. James MacGinnitie
  • 111-A: Two Views of the Financial Implications of Resource Limits
    Oliver Bettis, Gail E. Tverberg
  • 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    112: Strategies for Managing the Monthly Medical Insurance Valuation Process (H) (E)

  • Down syndrome, autism and cerebral palsy - these are conditions that manifest at birth or in early childhood. They result in lifelong impairments. The economic costs can be hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars over the life of the child. Families must pay for direct costs not covered by health insurance and indirect costs such as the loss of earnings when a working parent must tend to the child. Presenter David Morel will propose an insurance product to respond to this financial risk. There will almost always be some restatement of IBNR reserves. The best method or combination of methods to use in a particular situation may be dependent upon factors and actuarial judgment that cannot be tested through a scientific model. While management may continually inquire about the level of restatement, the actuary is aware that restatements will not go away. This paper’s focus is on the management of the IBNR process.
    Moderator: Ulrich Stellmann
  • 112-A: Strategies for the Management of the Monthly Medical Insurance Valuation Process
    Jed Linfield
  • 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    113: Competition, Ratemaking and Ethics (N)

  • This session focuses on competition from a macro and micro perspective. The first paper examines risk classification from an ethical perspective , while the second paper presents a game theoretic approach to building a model that simulates the dynamics and the effects of competition.. The third paper analyzes the impact of underwriting cycles on the risk and return of non-life insurance companies.
    Moderator: Stéphane Loisel
  • 113-A: Actuaries Still Think that Sex is Important
    Esko A. Kivisaari
  • 113-B: Competition between P&C Insurers
    Stéphane Loisel
  • 113-C: Do Underwriting Cycles Matter? An Analysis Based on Dynamic Financial Analysis
    Martin Eling
  • 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    114: Risk Management in Practice - Part 2 (L) (H) (N) (B) (E)

  • Risk management programs in practice are explored in this session. Multiple presentations will discuss the performance of different risk strategies by use of a simulation model of the competitive market; will explore the development of a CRO risk index which seeks to aggregate the subjective opinions of global risk professionals regarding significant movements in financial markets and general economic conditions; and will present the latest thinking on the articulation of a risk appetite for insurers, focusing on ways to make it a more effective and valuable process.
    Moderator: Kevin Madigan
  • 114-A: A Study of Insurer Risk Strategy
    David Ingram, Charles Thayer, Alice Underwood
  • 114-B: CRO Risk Index
    Richard Phillips
  • 114-C: Risk Appetite Revisited
    Matthew Peters
  • 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    115: Uncertainty - A Continuing Discussion (L) (H) (N) (B) (E) (P)

  • In Wednesday's Plenary Session, Dr. Paul Embrechts discussed the nature of risk and uncertainty, and concentrated specifically on some aspects of quantitative risk management related to the modeling of extremes, and on the model and parameter risk underlying current issues occupying the world of insurance. In Friday's parallel session, Dr. Embrechts will elaborate on several of his key points in a format that will allow for the audience to reflect on the Plenary address and to participate in a conversation with Dr. Embrechts.
    Moderator: Roger Hayne
  • 115-A: Uncertainty -- A Continuing Discussion
    Paul Embrechts
  • 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    116: Leveraging New Insights from the Global Burden of Disease and Risks to Achieve Great Health Gains at Lower Costs (L) (H)

  • This session discusses The Global Burden of Disease and Risk, and its implications for adult health priorities. Integrating the Global Burden of Disease and related financial data on healthcare costs in order to project cost trends and estimate prevention gains will be demonstrated. There will also be a case study from the Congressional Budget Office on modelling the long term impact of an increase in the Federal Tobacco Excise Tax.
    Moderator: Emile Stipp
  • 116-A: Leveraging New Insights from the Global Burden of Disease and Risks to Achieve Great Health Gains at Lower Costs
    Francois Millard, Ali Mokdad, Derek Yach, James Baumgardner
  • 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m.

    117: Papers Presented by French Actuaries on Models in Life and Non-Life Insurance (L) (N)

  • The presented papers are winners of a contest organised by the French actuaries to help recent actuaries to participate at the ICA2014.
    Moderator: Thomas Behar
  • 117-A: Papers Presented by French Actuaries on Models in Life and Non-Life Insurance
    Esther Avigail Malka, Guillaume Ominetti, Benjamin Schannes, Guillaume Biessy, Aurélien Couloumy, Marion Gremillet
  • 10:00 a.m.-11:30 a.m.

    04: Plenary Session 4 - Friday All

  • We are somewhat barking up the wrong tree with our heavy emphasis on getting ever more information and hoping that better technical methods will solve existing futures, especially crisis emergence, assessment shortfalls. The core issue in fostering improved human understanding about both emerging normal and crisis change is learning to better use the assessment tools at hand rather than constantly thinking that some next new method or data improvement will solve insight and foresight problems. There are things to be achieved in terms of cognition, method usage, and using concepts like entanglement and embeddedness to enhance performance. Three interconnected sub-themes will be addressed from prize-winning work in each area to attack the 'big issue' of how we get better now: 1) Using existing information and assessment approaches more effectively to understand emerging futures. In short, understanding what excellence at judging 'normal' change looks like. 2) Using insights about the dynamics of assessment failure that enfold mainstream analysts and organizations pre-crisis so as to better foresee and time an emerging crisis (Using their failure to comparative advantage), and 3) Looking at how post crisis one can better foresee how/why different societies recover - bounce back - in their particular way. Let's explore how the scientific community needs to improve human practice regarding change assessment and futures forecasting?
    Moderator: Christopher Carlson
  • 04-A: Improved Forecasting through a Different Focus
    Guntram Werther